Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 7.796346 8.954726 10.204544 11.650569 13.274727 15.039782 17.100242
2026-02-08 5.984719 7.523316 9.315056 11.544877 14.233754 17.359197 21.253801
2026-02-15 5.037095 6.715693 8.769203 11.446006 14.820569 18.909050 24.209949
2026-02-22 4.379645 6.155912 8.426507 11.509704 15.550103 20.623436 27.428045
2026-03-01 3.975061 5.846526 8.330191 11.821134 16.546534 22.658457 31.087815
2026-03-08 3.475363 5.341539 7.909360 11.639641 16.846461 23.771303 33.573595
2026-03-15 2.963022 4.754842 7.308766 11.139030 16.645055 24.164410 35.073151
2026-03-22 2.761097 4.596507 7.291759 11.443677 17.560296 26.098776 38.739246
2026-03-29 2.562859 4.419813 7.225646 11.659299 18.343989 27.869536 42.240218
2026-04-05 2.316701 4.140691 6.977114 11.574697 18.667998 28.983598 44.838119
2026-04-12 2.087740 3.864746 6.706843 11.428892 18.877803 29.924031 47.205313
2026-04-19 1.917103 3.668165 6.543517 11.432089 19.303905 31.189014 50.087602
2026-04-26 1.776344 3.512667 6.439287 11.529243 19.892201 32.742153 53.500252
2026-05-03 1.617714 3.309458 6.238387 11.451607 20.193889 33.866317 56.306274
2026-05-10 1.472060 3.113837 6.031875 11.344062 20.430279 34.884756 58.972157
2026-05-17 1.368599 2.986622 5.933379 11.410545 20.950586 36.365047 62.410513
2026-05-24 1.309713 2.939564 5.973515 11.718434 21.887606 38.546474 67.040607
2026-05-31 1.189228 2.757113 5.750010 11.538739 21.975227 39.340789 69.456115
2026-06-07 1.041214 2.501884 5.368149 11.041838 21.476712 39.134694 70.215020
2026-06-14 1.002142 2.472432 5.416674 11.344188 22.404939 41.351873 75.060053
2026-06-21 0.955631 2.421992 5.419434 11.558138 23.181153 43.336410 79.580419
2026-06-28 0.881319 2.301875 5.272999 11.474191 23.405817 44.376407 82.531747
2026-07-05 0.807583 2.174957 5.102119 11.329503 23.506633 45.198743 85.131670